Gamification, Virtual Worlds and The Gartner Hype Cycle
For those of you who do not know, the Gartner Hype Cycle is a graphical depiction of technology on a curve showing where technology is in terms of maturity. The Hype Cycle provides strategists and planners with an assessment of the maturity, business benefit and future direction of certain technologies. The hype cycle has five cycles on a graph as outlined below from Wikipedia.
“Technology Trigger” — The first phase of a hype cycle is the “technology trigger” or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
“Peak of Inflated Expectations” — In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
“Trough of Disillusionment” — Technologies enter the “trough of disillusionment” because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
“Slope of Enlightenment” — Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the “slope of enlightenment” and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
“Plateau of Productivity” — A technology reaches the “plateau of productivity” as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.
Here is the latest version of the Hype Cycle with two important technologies (in my opinion) highlighted.
The first is Gamification, in this version of the cycle, gamificaiton is currently just reaching the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” in this phase everyone thinks this technology is going to solve all of their problems and the concept is unnecessarily hyped. We lose all sense of the practicality and applicability of what really is possible with Gamification. The problem with this, and I do believe we are here, is that the inflated expectations undermine the real potential of the technologyand delay practical adoption.
Notice, however, that virtual worlds are now right in the middle of the trough of disillusionment which means people are still pretty down on virtual worlds but they are closer to actual productive use. In a posting I did from 2008 called Virtual Worlds…The rumors of their death have been greatly exaggerated, we can see that back then I indicated that I thought that virtual worlds were just entering the trough of disillusionment. At this point, I don’t agree with Gartner on Virtual Worlds, from what I have seen, they are clearly starting up the hype cycle area of Plateau of Productivity. I am seeing many more practical, applied and function versions of virtual worlds being enacted. I think virtual worlds will quickly leave the trough.
Additionally, the Read Write Web had a great infographic on Gamification which included the section below showing the location of Gamification on the hypecycle. I think It is interesting that on this version, Gamification it is starting down toward the trough of disillusionment a little further than the Gartner version. This happens to most technology but it seems a bit early to me for us to be that far toward disillusionment already (I think we still have some inflated expectations.)
We still have a year or two before it is a full scale disillusionment, although, early on there were many people who had a visceral and strong anti-gamification view that has not abated around the web. So maybe that is contributing to sending it toward the trough already but I still think we have some more hype to go.
Take a look for yourself and where do you think we are with virtual worlds and gamification in the hype cycle.
Original Source of the Graphic
If you want to learn more about the hype cycle you can get the book on the topic.
